Thursday, June 4, 2009

James Augustine might as well still be on ORL

Conventional basketball wisdom says you can't rely on the three to win a 7-game series. With a 23'9" line (22' at the corners), the shortage of legit shooters in the NBA (or anywhere on Earth), and the quickness and length of NBA defenders, the long ball isn't going to fall at a consistent enough rate to make it the cornerstone of a championship.

That shit is all bogus, dude. Or is it? NCAA teams have gone deep in the tourney riding the 3 ball since the 19'9" line was universally instituted in 1986 (it's now 20'9", btw). That 2005 Illinois team, in particular, comes to mind. Deron Williams, Luther Head and Dee Brown dominated beyond the arc throughout the year, leading the Illini to the championship where they lost only their second game of the season to a spicy hot UNC team loaded with NBA size and talent (Felton, McCants, Marvin Williams, May). It was the three ball that got the Illini there... and the three ball that finally took them down. In that championship game they shot just 12-40 from beyond the arc.

The NBA is a totally different game than the NCAA, but the similarities between that Illinois team and the Magic are hard to ignore. Lewis, Turkoglu and Alston/Pietrus/Nelson/Lee(/Redick?) are the team's perimeter sharpshooters and Dwight Howard is their James Augustine. You might even say the Magic will have 4 long ball shooters on the court at any given time. That's dangerous, especially considering how hot these dudes have been of late. The Magic made more 3's in a six-game playoff series than any other team in NBA history vs. the Cavs. Bill Simmons notes in his latest mailbag, "From Game 7 of the Boston series through Game 4 of the Cleveland series, the Magic drained 55 of 119 3-pointers (47 percent)." He goes on to say, "That's impossible."

Impossible to reproduce during this series. Especially with our Rashad McCantses and Marvin Williamses flying across the floor and throwing their hands all up in Magic players' grillz. The Magic will be lucky to nail 40% from beyond the arc during any one game against us. Even if they do eclipse 40%, the Magic won't be guaranteed a victory. Far from it. The Lakers won the only two games during which they allowed the Nugs to shoot over 40%. Thankfully for Lakers fans, this series is going to come down to a lot more than threes. If only it could possibly come down to a lot more than L.O.

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